• 2011 Predictions – Edgewood Park Real Estate

    It’s that time of year again, and here’s the one key thing that I, Ed Gory, predict with some level of certainty that will happen this year in real estate news:

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    Predictions on Bay Area real estate will be contradictory

    That’s right, contradictory. Some articles will point to data showing positive upswings. Other articles will point to downturns in this average or that average compared to the year before. Averages, as I said in previous posts, are just that – averages.  A “hot” micro-market, let’s say midtown Palo Alto, will pump up some random Bay Area average, but that average will also be “dragged down” by another micro-market, like east Menlo Park.

    Are some markets predictable? Yes, but again that really depends.  Micro-markets, down at the neighborhood level, can be pretty predictable. Will a $2M home in Palo Alto sell in a relatively quick amount of time? You betcha.  How about a $2M home in Redwood City? Mmm, probably not as quickly. Location, price and condition are still the key factors in how quickly a home sells.

    Remember this: for every boom, there is a bust. For every bust, there’s a new boom. What’s the size of that new boom, and when will it happen? Ten experts will probably yield you ten differing opinions.

    The Bay Area real estate market is hugely cyclical, despite what goes on in the larger picture of national real estate or mortgage news. That’s because, in spite of the economy, people are still getting married, or having kids, or getting divorced, or downsizing, or dying, and investors are still investing.  Time and time again, here’s the cycle that’s been happening, boom or bust, in our Bay Area:

    1. Jan 1: inventory is low, and December sales stats that come out will show to be sluggish (no kidding, Sherlock, Christmas time is not usually home-buying time)
    2. Inventory picks up steam in mid- to late-January
    3. Home sales pick up and continue through end of May/early June
    4. Summer slows down a bit in June and July, but keeps chugging
    5. Activity picks up from August through late September
    6. October brings a slight slow down. Inventory starts getting low.
    7. November things slow down even further. Inventory continues to get lower.
    8. December becomes really slow, and local real estate offices are as quiet as a funeral parlor. Inventory, again, becomes a drip in a faucet.
    9. And, back to Jan. 1 we are, and the cycle starts again.

    So relative to #1 and #9, here’s just some numbers to chew on, and in a few months I’ll revisit them. As of January 1st, these are the current number of active single family homes real pharmacy discount for sale in:

    • San Carlos:           35
    • Redwood City:   126
    • Belmont:              21
    • Redwood Shores:  2 (yes, you read that correctly, TWO!)
    • Burlingame:            26
    • Palo Alto:                33
    • Menlo Park :           39
    • Mountain View:    28
    • Los Altos:               26
    • Santa Clara:           96
    • Sunnyvale:            86
    This entry was posted on Sunday, January 2nd, 2011 at 10:29 pm and is filed under Redwood City. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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